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Gerrymandering Makes State Legislature Races Oddly Important by Steve Sailer UPI, November 3, 2000 |
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Oddly enough, the most meaningful ballot that many voters will cast on Tuesday will in State Assembly races. These contests are unglamorous, but don't overlook their importance. These seemingly lowly legislators are going to enjoy the momentous task of redistricting U.S. Congressional districts using the 2000 Census results. With the computer technology available today, legislators will be able to gerrymander districts in ways beyond the fondest dreams of old time political bosses. Surely, though, a vote for President is far more crucial? Of course -- if you live in battleground states such as Oregon or Michigan. You citizens of swing states can be sure that the candidates are frantically interested in how you decide to vote. On the other hand, if you live in Texas, Al Gore has paid no more serious attention to you than George W. Bush has to the citizens of New York. In nearly half of America, the trailing candidate conceded the state's Electoral College votes long ago. According to the latest analysis by Hal Bruno, the senior political analyst for Politics.com, states comprising 31% the Electoral College are "strong for Bush" and 14% are "strong for Gore." (According to this veteran forecaster, "Bush is ahead" in another 13% and Gore in leading in another 18%, leaving only 27% in the "Close/Even" column.) But what about the House of Representatives? Isn't that on the knife-edge, too? Indeed, a small number of votes will no doubt determine who controls the House next term. But the odds are definitely against you living in a district where anybody who is anybody in politics cares about you right now. Of the 435 Congressional seats, Congressional Quarterly lists a whopping 341 (78%) as "Safe" (171 Republican, 170 Democratic). In another 41 districts, one party or the other is clearly "Favored." And 34 seats "Lean" toward one party or the other. Only in 18 (4%) is there "No Clear Favorite." The Senate and the Gubernatorial elections are somewhat more competitive. Just over half of the Senate races (17 of 33) are "Safe." And 21% are totally up for grabs. In the eleven governors contests, only one is "Safe" and five are wide open. Why are the House races less competitive than the state-based races? States have unchanging borders. In contrast, Congressional districts are synthetic. State legislatures redraw them after every Census. Using 1991-era computers, legislators were able to draw some highly contrived Congressional districts based on the 1990 Census. The legislatures that will reapportion Congressional districts next year will have 2001 model computers. You can expect marvels of the gerrymanderer's art. In the 1995 "Shaw" case, a sharply divided Supreme Court outlawed designing Congressional districts with "bizarre" shapes in order to ensure the election of a member of a particular race. Yet, the Justices did not invalidate weird-looking districts that were gerrymandered not for race, but for partisan advantage or incumbent protection. If one party controls both branches of a state's legislature and its governor's mansion, it frequently can legally concoct just about any district lines it wants. A single party can pile huge numbers of the other party's voters into a handful of districts. That gives themselves comfortable majorities in the bulk of the seats. They can also protect incumbents by customizing districts just for them. In 1991, the Republicans had this kind of stranglehold on only two states with a grand total of five Representatives. In contrast, the Democrats monopolized power in states with 240 Congressmen. Since then, Republicans have done well at the state level and have pulled close to the Democrats in number of states locked down solid. This election could swing the map-drawing balance of power sharply in either direction. The near equality in the House of Representatives that has prevailed since 1994 is likely to continue in this election. The Republicans and Democrats may well be closely matched again in 2002, the first of five Congressional elections that will be fought in districts drawn by the new state legislatures. That's why control of the U.S. House in 2002 could well turn on who wins the more humble state elections on Tuesday. Steve Sailer (www.iSteve.com) is a columnist for VDARE.com and the film critic for The American Conservative.
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